DEALBREAKER Donald Trump and the Unmaking of the Iran Nuclear Deal Scott Ritter Seymour Hersh (Foreword) Atlanta: Clarity Press, November 2018 |
Rating: 5.0 High |
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ISBN-13 978-0-0-9998747-5-2 | ||||
ISBN-10 0-0-9998747-5-6 | 325pp. | SC/GSI | $29.95 |
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was one of the most important diplomatic deals of the twenty-first century. Briefly put, it provided for the regulation and monitoring of Iran's development of nuclear technology, especially its enrichment of uranium, over a fifteen-year period from its inception in September 2015. Montoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) made sure no uranium was enriched beyond the 3.5% suitable for Iran's nuclear power program. The deal was working as designed: keeping Iran from devloping nuclear weapons.
But Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, dedicated to military confrontation with Iran, had opposed work toward this deal. He came to Washington in 2015, invited by Republicans in the US Congress, to speak against President Obama'a advocacy of the JCPOA. Netanyahu had the support of most Republicans in Congress. Despite this, after difficult negotiations among Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council,2 and after Senate Republicans failed to win enough votes to derail it, the JCPOA took effect in September 2015.
President Obama praised the JCPOA as a victory for diplomacy and said he was "heartened that so many Senators judged the deal on the merits." But, as the author points out, he was only half right.
Obama's words were pure spin—there had been no Senate vote in favor of the agreement, or debate over the merits of the bill. The JCPOA survived not because the American Congress supported it, but because parliamentary procedures precluded it from being killed. – Page 239 |
On the Iranian side, President Hassan Rouhani did some parliamentary maneuvering of his own. The details are fascinating, at least for political junkies.1 But I'm not going to go into them here. What matters is that, with Netanyahu's urging, the deal was broken by Trump after he won the presidency.
Trump had also inveighed against the JCPOA. But now, campaigning in August 2015, he spoke in a less condemnatory manner.
"I've heard lots of people say, 'we're going to rip up the deal,'" Trump said. "It's very tough to do when you say, 'Rip up a deal.'" The New york businessman then unveiled his transactional approach toward resolving the Iran nuclear issue. "You know, I've taken over some bad contracts. I buy contracts where people screwed up and they have bad contracts," he said. "But I'm really good at looking at a contract and finding things within a contract that, even if they're bad, I would police that contract so tough that they don't have a chance. As bad as the contract is, I would be so tough on that contract." Trump continued this theme on September 4, 2015, calling in to the MSNBC "Morning Joe" program. "I have to do what's right," Trump said. "Politically and certainly for the nomination, I would love to tell you I'm going to rip up this contract, I'm going to be the toughest guy in the world, and I'm just rippin' it up, but you know what? Life doesn't work that way." – Page 239 |
This approch proved beneficial for Trump on the campaign trail as a contrast to his fire-and-brimstone rhetoric about immigration and border security. It also contrasted with another voice — the voice of a man who had to come to terms with the fact that a deal he feared had come to pass. Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that the deal constrained Iran.
But you see here's the catch. Under this deal, if Iran doesn't change its behavior, in fact, if it becomes even more dangerous in the years to come, the most important constraints will still be automatically lifted by year 10 and by year 15. That would place a militant Islamic terror regime weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs. – Page 240 |
Netanyahu had long held the view that Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons as expeditiously as possible.
Israel had long viewed the Iranian nuclear program as representing an existential threat to the security of the Jewish state. In 1995, Benjamin Netanyahu, who at the time headed the conservative Lijud Party and was positioning himself for the 1996 elections for Prime Minister, authored a book, Fighting Teorrorism, in which he positied that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a threat to the entire world. Iran, Netanyahu opined, was but "a short time" away from acquiring the materials , infrastructure, and know-how to perfect an indigenous uranium enrichment capability. Once this was accomplished, Netanyahu wrote, "It would then be a matter of five to seven years" before Iran would have a nuclear weapon. In May 1996, Netanyahu was elected Prime Minister. Soon afterwards he was provided with a report prepared by Amos Gilad, a senior intelligence officer in the Israel Military Intelligence service, or AMAN, which assessed "that iran would become Israel's main enemy because of its vision of developing botha nuclear weapon and a large missile force." In July 1996, Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress, where he warned the American lawmakers about the consequences of a nuclear Iran, which he labeled "the most dangerous" regime. "If this regime were to acquire nuclear weapons," the new Israeli Prime Minister warned, "this could presage catastropic consequences, not only for my country, and not only for the Middle East, but for all mankind." Under Netanyahu, Israel was trying to get the US to buy into their assessment that Iran was pursiung a nuclear weapons capability that, when paired with a parallel program for the development of long-range missiles, placed all of Israel, and the world, in dnager. The United States, however, was preoccupied with Iraq and the unresolved issue Of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. When it came to the alleged nuclear threat posed by Iran, Israel was on its own. Netanyahu struggled as Prime Minister and, after losing a vote of no confidence, was compelled to call for early elections in May 1999. Ehud Barak, the former Minister of Defense, won, and in turn was ousted in 2001 by Ariel Sharon, another former Minister of Defense. Sharon had inherited the services of Efraim Halevy, the director of Mossad who was appointed to that position by Netanyahu in 1998. Halevy was a cerebral spymaster who had developed a personal understanding of Iran when he had made secret visits to that country during the rule of the Shah. "Sensible Iranians are not in short supply," Halevy noted after leaving the Mossad, reflecting his personal preference for a "sophisticated and nuanced" policy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions which, the former Mossad director believed, were "deterrable." Halevy's approach toward dealing with the Iranian nuclear program was to pursue a combination of economic and diplomatic pressure that would isolate the radicals and appeal to the "national aspirations" of mainstream Iranians. Sharon grew tired of the quiet, measured approach taken by Halevy toward Iran, and went looking for someone "with a dagger between his teeth" to lead the spy agency. His choice was Meir Dagan, a retired army commando with a reputation for getting the job done, whatever the cost. As a junior officer, Dagan had served under the command of Ariel Sharon, where he earned the respect of the flamboyant general. Like Halevy, Dagan was not a proponent of military conflict with Iran, believing that it was Mossad's responsibility to keep Israel out of a war by aggressively carrying out its own work. Dagan took over in September 2002, and quickly streamlined the Mossad's mission focus to two main isues: terrorism (as defined by Israel, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad) and the iranian nuclear problem. By January 2003, Dagan's deputy, Tamir Pardo, had put together a detailed operational plan on how to proceed against Iran. The goal of the Mossad operation was to put in place a multi-faceted program of pressure on the regime in Tehran which would make the cost of continuing a nuclear program prohibitively high. Dagan realized that a war with Iran was not an option—Iran was too big, too powerful, and too far away for Israel to have any chance of destroying its nuclear program through military action. So methods short of war would have to be employed. To accomplish this, the Mossad envisioned a five-pronged approach based on diplomatic pressure, stringent economic sanctions, supporting opposition groups to undermine/overthrow the ruling theocracy, disrupting the importation by Iran of essential material and equipment, and covert operations designed to sabotage Iranian nuclear installations and, if needed, to assassinate key Iranian figures involved in the nuclear program. – Pages 99-101 |
The first public mention of Iran developing nuclear missiles came from Colin Powell in 2004 (page 103). This was based on 1,000 pages of technical material acquired by the US. There was a problem, however: the CIA doubted this material was genuine. It had come unsolicited from a source tied to Iranian opposition group MEK, and some of the documents revealed the involvement of Israel's Mossad (page 104).
Olli Heinonen came into the picture when he replaced Pierre Goldschmidt as head of the IAEA Department of Safeguards (page 103). The US comes into the picture in the peerson of Robert Joseph, Under Secretary of State forArms Control and International Security (page 105). Joseph was a hardliner, the man who had persuaded George W.Bush to keep the line about yellowcake in his 2003 State of the Union address.
These bogus documents came to be known as the "alleged studies" materials. Heinonen kept trying to convince IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei they were authentic. He too did not succeed — until ElBaradei was replaced (page 131). To cut to the chase, all this indicated a long-running deception by Israel and the US to persuade the IAEA that Iran was trying to develop nuclear weapons. This had some success, but in most cases Iran was able to show the UN it was not cheating and thus avoid sanctions. Neither was any US president persuaded — until Trump.
This, in essence, is the story of the next thirty years: Netanyahu fearmongering about the "existential threat" posed by Iran to Israel, and by extension to everyone else; claiming since at least 1995 that Iran was on the verge of having nuclear weapons; and attempting, helped by a faction in the US, to bolster those claims with concocted evidence.
The end result of all this maneuvering is that Netanyahu prevailed upon Trump to withdraw unilaterally from the JCPOA in 2018. After that Iran, freed from constraints, proceeded to enrich a quantity of Uranium to 60%. Netanyahu, of course, claimed this put Iran just weeks away from having nuclear weapons and used that claim as a pretext to bomb Iran for 12 days in June 2025, eliminating its air defenses and some nuclear facilities and killing a number of officials and scientists.3 These attacks came while Iran was awaiting the resumption of talks with the Trump regime, and are widely regarded as violations of international law. Following Israel's campaign, the US bombed three of Iran's nuclear sites on 23 June, using "bunker busters" on Fordow and Natanz and cruise missiles on Isfahan. The operation, lnown as "Midnight Hammer," went smoothly but also was assessed as largely ineffective because it did not destroy the sites completely and did not elminate the enriched uranium.4 Trump, however, still claims the sites were "completely obliterated."
Due to Scott Ritter's fine-grained history of the complicated, contentious negotiations required to put the JCPOA in place, this book is hard to read. However, it is well worth reading. It is extensively end-noted and its index is short but useful. Due to its level of detail, I won't call it a must read. The 28-page Prologue, "Embarrasment," will give you the gist. I do consider it a keeper, though, thanks to the index and end notes, anlong with a Glossary, two maps, and a Timeline of Key Events. There are few errors. I give it full marks.